Make forecasts to predict project out-turns for cost and time
Overview
This standard is about making forecasts to predict project out-turns, providing information that may directly influence the project delivery strategy.
You will need to be able to increase the predictability of future project performance through application of forecasting and predictive analysis to project data, including the production of forecasts for different scenarios and recommending courses of action based on these.
Who this standard is for
This standard is for project controls-related roles, including project controls engineers, estimators, planners, schedulers, cost controllers, risk analysts, risk managers and contract managers.
Performance criteria
You must be able to:
- analyse progress using predictive analysis techniques:
- extrapolating trends and figures based on historical data
- analysing progress and the effects of variances from the baseline
- select and use techniques for forecasting analysis to predict future project out-turns, including:
- extrapolating trends and figures based on historical data
- identifying variances from the planned baseline
- interpret the identified future project outturns/forecasted results, using ranges, and make recommendations depending on project status
- model what-if forecasts for different scenarios
- produce reforecasts for schedule, cost, and other variables, including:
- to reforecast or change resource patterns and logic
- to calculate phasing of future expenditure and income
- to calculate cost at completion
- consideration to risk and change
- ability to make adjustments when original assumptions change
- use software and digital packages correctly to undertake analysis
- create and present both summative and detailed reports to make forecasting data meaningful for the intended stakeholder
Knowledge and Understanding
You need to know and understand:
- the purpose, and importance, of trend analysis
- what drives performance and progress, and how future performance and progress can be altered
- how to interrogate variances between baseline planned and progress
- how the analysis can be applied to different coding structures
- the techniques for analysing progress
- the techniques for forecasting anticipated completion
- how to assess the scope and cost impact of variances and consequences of changes in scope and risk
- the fundamentals of statistical analysis
- the importance of commercial completion of the contract and how this links to recommendations
- how to forecast future project conditions and make recommendations
- how to produce what-if forecasts for different scenarios and recommend courses of action based on these
- advantages and disadvantages of different software and digital packages that can be used for analysis and forecasting
- how to prepare and present forecasting data and information to various stakeholders
Scope/range
Scope Performance
Scope Knowledge
Values
Behaviours
Skills
Glossary
Ranges
Providing a minimum/maximum value against the lifecycle forecast out-turn for time and cost.
Additional information:
Techniques for forecasting and predictive analysis
Fundamentals of statistical analysis and forecasting in relation to project controls may include:
- terminology used to reflect time-based differences
- normalisation of data
- interpretation of published indices
- averages and standard deviations
- escalation and indexation
- investment appraisal
- learning curve analysis
Techniques for analysing progress
Techniques for analysing progress may include:
- earned value analysis
- quantity tracking
- exception reporting
Techniques for forecasting anticipated completion
These may include:
- balancing
- expert human input
- statistical-based input
Fundamentals of statistical analysis
These may include:
- terminology used to reflect time-based differences
- normalisation of data
- interpretation of published indices from Governmental or commercial sources
- averages and standard deviations
- escalation and indexation
- probabilities